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ABA: цикл повышений ставок ФРС закончится летом

Фондовый рынок

По мнению American Bankers Association (ассоциация американских банкиров), ФРС завершит процесс повышения ставок к середине текущего года. При этом это крайний срок. АВА прогнозирует, что на ближайшем заседании 27-28 года ФРС повысит ставку на 0.25%.. Повышение ставок в мае - не факт. В свою очередь, эксперты UBS и J.P.Morgan повысил прогноз по ставке ЕЦБ. Ожидается, что ставка к декабрю текущего года достигнет уровня 3.25% на фоне усиления экономического роста и инфляционного давления. Forexpf.Ru - Forex News / Новости Форекс
17.03.06 17:56  |  Wall Street открылся смешанно 20.03.06 09:50  |  Нефть подешевела в пятницу, но выросла по итогам недели
Комментарии (всего 11)
 
19:33  B.Daemon: 1
11:19  новичок: вот поэтому буду бычить по фунту. и фиг отговорите.
11:33  _I_A_M_: Новичок - дорогой - ну если уэ так хочется бычить - особенно по мотивам верхнего коммента - то почему не по ЕВРО??????????
22:20  KeT4yn: 2-Yr Benchmark Govt Yields - U.S. vs Other Nations

Current -------------- Spread in Basis Points -----------
Yield Today Prev Day Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago

U.S. 4.653 %
Australia 5.225 % 57.2 57.6 59.8 53.6 186.5
Austria 3.217 % -143.6 -143.2 -156.2 -175.9 -103.3
Belgium 3.269 % -138.4 -138.4 -150.1 -169.6 -85.3
Canada 3.892 % -76.1 -75.7 -78.2 -74.1 -57.9
Denmark 3.389 % -126.4 -126.0 -138.7 -168.6 -122.0
France 3.243 % -141.0 -140.6 -154.4 -174.3 -122.3
Germany 3.232 % -142.1 -141.7 -155.9 -178.5 -122.3
Italy 3.318 % -133.5 -133.1 -147.4 -175.7 -122.2
Japan 0.615 % -403.8 -403.4 -426.7 -428.5 -357.1
Netherlands 3.110 % -154.3 -153.1 -167.2 -183.7 -134.0
Portugal 3.148 % -150.5 -150.1 -162.1 -179.2 -132.1
Spain 3.122 % -153.1 -152.7 -166.7 -184.8 -129.0
Sweden 2.845 % -180.8 -180.4 -195.2 -193.0 -114.1
U.K. 4.408 % -24.5 -23.5 -31.9 -45.4 103.1
22:21  KeT4yn: 10-Yr Benchmark Govt Yields - Germany vs Other Nations

Current -------------- Spread in Basis Points -----------
Yield Today Prev Day Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago

Germany 3.676 %
Australia 5.270 % 159.4 159.4 173.2 177.7 196.7
Austria 3.681 % 0.5 0.5 1.4 -1.6 -1.4
Belgium 3.741 % 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.0 9.6
Canada 4.149 % 47.3 46.8 57.6 71.9 65.4
Denmark 3.735 % 5.9 5.9 5.0 -2.4 10.7
France 3.714 % 3.8 3.8 3.7 1.8 4.0
Italy 3.898 % 22.2 22.2 21.8 21.1 12.6
Japan 1.725 % -195.1 -195.1 -199.8 -193.4 -227.4
Netherlands 3.685 % 0.9 0.9 1.2 -0.4 -2.3
Portugal 3.796 % 12.0 12.0 12.5 10.5 -1.6
Spain 3.703 % 2.7 2.7 2.7 -1.4 3.2
Sweden 3.575 % -10.1 -10.1 -12.8 -7.7 15.8
U.K. 4.340 % 66.4 66.7 66.4 68.8 112.9
U.S. 4.676 % 100.0 99.6 109.3 110.1 81.5
00:40  KeT4yn: 10-Yr Benchmark Govt Yields - U.S. vs Other Nations

Current -------------- Spread in Basis Points -----------
Yield Today Prev Day Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago

U.S. 4.676 %
Australia 5.270 % 59.4 59.8 63.9 67.7 115.3
Austria 3.681 % -99.5 -99.1 -107.9 -111.6 -82.9
Belgium 3.741 % -93.5 -93.1 -102.9 -104.1 -71.8
Canada 4.149 % -52.7 -52.8 -51.7 -38.2 -16.1
Denmark 3.735 % -94.1 -93.7 -104.3 -112.5 -70.8
France 3.714 % -96.2 -95.8 -105.6 -108.3 -77.5
Germany 3.676 % -100.0 -99.6 -109.3 -110.1 -81.5
Italy 3.898 % -77.8 -77.4 -87.5 -89.0 -68.8
Japan 1.725 % -295.1 -294.7 -309.1 -303.4 -308.9
Netherlands 3.685 % -99.1 -98.7 -108.1 -110.4 -83.8
Portugal 3.796 % -88.0 -87.6 -96.8 -99.6 -83.1
Spain 3.703 % -97.3 -96.9 -106.6 -111.4 -78.3
Sweden 3.575 % -110.1 -109.7 -122.1 -117.8 -65.7
U.K. 4.340 % -33.6 -32.9 -42.9 -41.2 31.5
00:41  KeT4yn: 2-Yr Benchmark Govt Yields - Germany vs Other Nations

Current -------------- Spread in Basis Points -----------
Yield Today Prev Day Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago

Germany 3.232 %
Australia 5.250 % 201.8 199.3 215.7 232.1 308.7
Austria 3.217 % -1.5 -1.5 -0.3 2.6 19.0
Belgium 3.269 % 3.7 3.3 5.8 8.9 36.9
Canada 3.892 % 66.0 66.0 77.7 104.4 64.3
Denmark 3.389 % 15.7 15.7 17.2 9.9 0.2
France 3.243 % 1.1 1.1 1.5 4.3 -0.1
Italy 3.318 % 8.6 8.6 8.5 2.8 0.1
Japan 0.615 % -261.7 -261.7 -270.8 -250.0 -234.8
Netherlands 3.110 % -12.2 -11.4 -11.3 -5.2 -11.8
Portugal 3.148 % -8.4 -8.4 -6.2 -0.6 -9.8
Spain 3.122 % -11.0 -11.0 -10.8 -6.3 -6.7
Sweden 2.845 % -38.7 -38.7 -39.3 -14.4 8.1
U.K. 4.408 % 117.6 118.2 124.0 133.2 225.3
U.S. 4.653 % 142.1 141.7 155.9 178.5 122.3
01:14  KeT4yn: With only a few U.S. economic reports due this week, markets will also focus on international news, particularly in the euro zone.

The risk, said some analysts, is that after the euro's strong performance, the single currency might be vulnerable to setbacks if euro-zone statistics come in short of expectations, or if ECB officials soften their tone on rates.

Euro-zone data and official comments "will be important since the market has moved a lot in terms of ECB expectations," said Daniel Katzive, foreign exchange strategist at UBS in Stamford, Conn. "That poses some risks for the euro.

Among the most important data this week will be the German March consumer price index, due Friday. Analysts anticipate that the figure will show a pullback from the recent increase seen in prices.

On Thursday, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will speak at a summit on economic reform in Brussels.

In Japan, there is almost no significant data expected this week.

"Focus on official speeches next week could move the yen, as there doesn't seem to be any big data out," said Darwell of Citigroup.

Analysts say there could be one more factor that may weigh on the dollar: China.

Sens. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., are planning to visit China at the end of March. The two senators, long-time critics of China's currency policies, are the sponsors of a bill to encourage China to allow its currency to appreciate and have promised a Senate vote on their measure by the end of March. As the date for the measure fast approaches, comments from the senators could have an effect next week.

"The fact the legislation has to brought up in the next two weeks means there is risk that anything they say next week could have an effect," said Darwell.
01:23  KeT4yn: Bond markets face more uncertainty than usual this week, as the first day of trading brings a major address from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on the yield curve and monetary policy.

While expectations are low that the new top central banker will break new ground Monday evening, the speech adds a hard-to-handicap risk. In the event of a surprise, it could set the tone for trading in a week where the caliber of data releases is such that they probably won't. Bernanke's address also comes at a time where monetary policy matters lie front and center in the market's thought process.

Last week proved to be a time of modest turbulence for markets, as participants reevaluated their outlook for monetary policy, and pushed up prices. The shift in sentiment was rooted in the benign outcome of the February consumer price index, released last Thursday, coupled with comments from several Fed officials interpreted by the market as somewhat dovish.

The soft inflation data were viewed as taking some pressure off the Fed to push rates up. And with Fed officials having so frequently tied the outlook to incoming data, bond market participants scaled back expectations of how far the Fed will go. The market now believes what is currently a 4.50% fed funds rate will be pushed to between 4.75% and 5%, at which point the Fed will move to the sidelines.

Economists, in a survey conducted by Dow Jones Newswires, still believe that by the time the Fed reaches its May 10 meeting, the central bank will have pushed the funds rate to its resting point of 5%. But a notable number of banks continue to think the Fed will have to go farther.

For the week, it was a positive performance for Treasurys. The price gains allowed spreads between short and long-dated issues to narrow just a bit.
01:25  KeT4yn:
Australian Police: Tropical Cyclone Destroys Houses

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