Доллар/франк. Технический взгляд
RES 4: Chf1.1278 максимум 19 сентября
RES 3: Chf1.1111 10-дневная скользящая средняя
RES 2: Chf1.1099 21-дневная скользящая средняя
RES 1: Chf1.0938 5-дневная скользящая средняя
Текущий курс доллар/франка: Chf1.0763
SUP 1: Chf1.0702 минимум 22 сентября
SUP 2: Chf1.0608 200-дневная скользящая средняя
SUP 3: Chf1.0584 100-дневная скользящая средняя
SUP 4: Chf1.0552 61.8% коррекции движения Chf1.0018- Chf1.1417
Источник: Forexpf.Ru - Новости рынка Форекс
|23.09.08 12:42 | Евро/доллар. Фундаментальные уровни||23.09.08 15:13 | Goldman Sachs: в краткосрочной перспективе доллар может сохранить слабость|
Комментарии (всего 10)
14:54 ViDan: Набор букв 14:43 .".. видел нефть выше ста долларов за унцию.."
14:57 MAGpie: Почем баррель золота нынче?..
14:59 ViDan: MAGpie 14:57
...стоко, сколь бушель говядины...)))
15:04 AlexGrig: The combination of a dollar that appears weakened by the Paulson plan, safe -haven buying that continues due to the conditions necessary for the Paulson plan, a substantially reduced Comex long positioning and signs of solid physical demand for gold around the $780-830 level, leaves all the conditions in place for gold to make further gains. The next few days will be dominated by Comex option expiry on Thursday: certainly this was contributing to some very high trades in short-dated gold options yesterday. There is a tremendous amount - nearly 800 lots - of open interest at the $1000/oz strike, although this may be too far away to draw the gold price to that price for Thursday. There is about 5000 lots of open interest between $890 and $910/oz and this may play a larger role in holding gold around the current level for the next couple of days. We do believe, however, that gold can make further gains in the coming month and accordingly we upgrade our one-month forecast to $925/oz and our 3m forecast to $975/oz (from $850 and $900/oz) although we would not rule out further gains, especially if the dollar were to weaken further.
We have made no changes to our silver price forecasts as the metal still has upside room here. We see silver at $14.70 in one month and $15.40 in three months; We cut back our platinum price forecasts somewhat, now looking for the metal to trade to $1300 in one month and $1400/oz in three months ($1550 and $1700/oz previously) while we trim palladium to $270/oz in one month and $300/oz in three months ($300 and $350 previously).
Gold Poised For Further Gains
Gold traded up to our three month forecast level of $900/oz in late yesterday as a weaker dollar, surging oil price and still lurking safe haven buying combined to push gold to our target level. But despite this triumvirate of drivers, gold traded in a much steadier, more orderly manner and the metal has held onto most of its overnight gains despite an apparent fall in oil prices caused by the expiry of the October Nymex future. This expiry appears to explain much of yesterday's late surge in crude. Oil, which had been stronger through the day, exploded higher in late trading with the expiring October future up $24/bbl as some traders scurried to cover short positions into the close. Longer-dated futures also moved higher but without the same speed - the November future CLX8 was up about $8.50 on the day and has held these gains through Asian and early London trading and is currently $109.12/bbl. Gold posted solid gains in US trading yesterday ending floor trading at the session high of $903.50/4.50 after an earlier low of $874 / 875 and the metal made further gains after the close, printing a high of $906.50 in after hours trading and retaining this strength into early Asia, with a high of $909.50 on EBS. Gold did lose some ground in later Asian trade as the metal rain into good offers just ahead of $910/oz as crude and EURUSD slipped from their highs and the metal traded down to a low of $881 / 882 after some stops were triggered around $895/oz but the metal has recovered its poise and is back above $896/oz at 07:00 London time.
Silver continued to outperform gold yesterday with the gold silver ratio down to about 66.6 from 72.4, where it was trading when we highlighted the potential for silver to outperform gold last week. Platinum and palladium have also gained some ground of late but both metals have lagged the moves in gold and silver, which makes sense in an environment where risk aversion is a key driver to the precious metals complex.
Russia Ships Palladium
Palladium has been one of the largest casualties of the July-August sell-off in commodities, roughly halving from around $470/oz at the end of June to about $225/oz last week - a far cry from the near $600/oz see at the end of February 2008. The strength of the US dollar, general commodity weakness and fears of collapsing auto sales, especially the large US SUVs and trucks that consume such a lot of palladium, contributed to the weakness in the metal, triggering investor liquidation and probably some short selling. The release of monthly Swiss data suggests that other factors may have been at work, too. We monitor imports and exports of platinum and palladium in and out of Switzerland as a means of judging flows of metal into and out of the OTC clearing system, located in Switzerland. As a generalisation, when implied Swiss stocks, which are calculated from net imports, are rising, it shows that there is metal in the market with no immediate demand. Conversely, when Swiss stocks of platinum or palladium are falling, it shows more demand than can be met by current supply.
One reason why we turned more positive on palladium over the past year is the steady decline in implied Swiss stocks, as shown in the accompanying chart. But as the data for the last month shows, this reversed in August, with a small increase in implied stocks. The source of the increase is rather concerning. Russia is the world's largest producer and exporter of palladium, mining about 3 million ounces and selling as much as 5 million ounces, the difference coming from state stockpiles of unknown size. The smaller-than-expected shipments from Russia over the past 18 months had led commentators - including ourselves - to believe that Russian stock sales had slowed, perhaps due to near-depletion. But the increase in implied Swiss stocks in August was due to a jump in Russian exports: 10.4 tonnes of Russian palladium entered Switzerland in August, a massive jump on the monthly shipments seen this year, which ranged from 22kt to 0.45t per month. This further undercuts the argument for owning palladium. Not only is demand weak due to poor car sales (both in size and numbers), but supply suddenly looks less constrained. Following the price falls from all three platinum group metals, we recognise that we need to pull back our medium term forecasts for all three metals: in the case of palladium, there is more than just weak demand to worry about.
Nickel Market May Have Supply Surplus to 2012, Norilsk Says
Nickel supplies may exceed demand through 2012 as production growth outpaces demand, according to OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest producer of the metal used to make stainless steel. Metal producers have delayed new projects and cut output after nickel prices slid to near their production costs, curbing profits. Nickel has dropped 66 percent from a record $51,800 a ton in May last year. "The key message is we're moving from a supply constrained market to a well supplied market,'' said David Wilson, senior economist at Norilsk Nickel, at a conference in London. Demand will pick up from stainless steel producers toward the end of this year after inventories were reduced, he said. (Bloomberg)
Major nickel projects are like London buses: none for ages due to delays and breakdowns, and then loads at once. After years of delays and cost overruns, a number of nickel projects have now arrived and the nickel market, as David Wilson suggests, appears to be adequately supplied for now and likely for the foreseeable future. Compounding the supply issues, the nickel price surge to $50,000 and beyond, triggered demand destruction, i.e. a permanent shift to stainless steel with a lower nickel content in some applications. But the final point Mr Wilson mentions may play a role in improving nickel prices, that of re-stocking by the stainless steel industry. We concur that the stainless steel industry has destocked substantially: while there have been many false re-stocking dawns, an up-tick in demand from this sector could herald accelerated purchases of nickel, although perhaps not until next year. The meetings around LME week may reveal further intelligence in this regard.
China Yuguang to close third of lead capacity from Oct 6
Yuguang Gold & Lead, China's top lead producer, will shut down more than a third of its 310,000 tonnes of lead production capacity for repairs from Oct 6 for 35-45 days, an executive said on Tuesday. "We have to shut down the system as it has been overused," Yuguang's trade manager, Li Xiaodong, told Reuters. "We think the system may be able to restart on Nov 10." Yuguang operates 3 lead production systems in Henan province and normally produces 25,000 tonnes of refined lead a month, he said. The shutdown would reduce the firm's output by more than 10,000 tonnes. The firm had informed domestic clients that it would delay some term shipments to November, he said. (Reuters)
It will be worth watching Chinese domestic lead prices to see whether this move squeeze prices higher, potentially triggering additional imports. At the moment, Chinese domestic prices are at a modest premium to the LME cash price, indicating no urgent need for additional imports, but this could change if this smelter tightens up the domestic market. Recently when Chinese prices are trading at a 20% premium to the LME it has heralded a rally in the LME price, probably in anticipation of Chinese import interest.
North China Aluminum Cuts Exports, Sees Slowing Air-Con Demand
North China Aluminum Co., maker of 5 percent of China's aluminum foil, reduced exports and said demand from air-conditioner makers is weakening as the world's fastest-growing major economy slows. ``About 20 of our small and medium-sized clients are struggling to maintain their normal operations,'' said Jiang Shixiong, general manager of the company which is 72 percent owned by China Minmetals Corp. China's largest aluminum producers have cut output on weaker demand and lower prices as the economy grew at the slowest pace in two years in the second quarter. China's home- appliances makers have cut purchases of copper as well as shipments slow, Jiangxi Copper Co. said in August. North China Aluminum exports 15 percent of its products to countries including Japan, Korea, the U.S. and Europe. (Bloomberg)
World Aluminum Production Rose 0.7 Percent in August
Global aluminum output rose 0.7 percent in August, led by gains in China, a report from the International Aluminium Institute showed. Production for the month was 3.36 million metric tons, up from 3.34 million tons in July, the London-based group said today on its Web site. Output in China at 1.19 million tons was up 1.9 percent from July and 7.2 percent higher than in August last year. Production over the month also climbed in Africa, western and eastern Europe and Australia and New Zealand. Prices of aluminum have increased 5.9 percent this year. (Bloomberg)
Rusal Signs Libya Accord on Aluminum, Power Plants
United Co. Rusal, the world's largest producer of aluminum, signed a joint venture accord with Libya to explore the possibility of building a smelter and power plant in the country. The memorandum of understanding concerns a project to build an aluminum plant with a capacity of 600,000 metric tons a year and a 1,500-megawatt capacity natural-gas-fired generator, the Moscow-based company said today in an e-mailed statement. Rusal would hold 60 percent of the project and a Libyan partner the rest. National Oil Co. of Libya will supply gas under a contract for at least 30 years, Rusal said. Construction of both plants may begin in 2010 subject to a successful pre- feasibility study. Rusal, controlled by Russia's richest man Oleg Deripaska, is scouring the world for low-cost energy to power new smelters. Electricity accounts for a third of production costs. Rusal said in January 2007 it signed an accord with the Papua New Guinea government. The company is also in talks about a project in Venezuela. (Bloomberg)
UC RUSAL to boost aluminium output
Russia's UC RUSAL, the world's top aluminium producer, will increase production of the metal by nearly 2 million tonnes by 2013 and aims to sell most of the expanded output to China, a senior executive said on Monday. Sergey Belsky, acting director for marketing and sales, said Asia would account for 50 percent of UC RUSAL's aluminium sales by 2015. Of that 70 percent - more than one-third of the firm's total output - would go to China. He said the latest crisis in financial markets would not change the long-term consumption growth for aluminium globally. "The future supply of RUSAL (to China) is logical because we are just next door," Belsky told Reuters at an exclusive interview on the sidelines of an aluminium conference in Chongqing in central China. UC RUSAL, the world's most efficient aluminium producer, will produce 6.2 million tonnes of primary aluminium by 2013, up from 4.4 million tonnes expected this year, Belsky said. By then, about 83 percent of the metal would be produced by the firm's operations in Siberia.
UC RUSAL expects China, the world's top aluminium producing and consuming nation, to turn into a net importer as early as the fourth quarter of 2009 as Beijing's polices of energy saving, stricter environmental protection and taxes will restrict production growth in the country. In the meantime, the country's consumption of aluminium could rise by an average of 11 percent a year until 2015, a similar rate to the other BRIC economies - Brazil, Russia and India, despite the latest crisis in financial markets. "Prices sometimes go up and sometimes go down. This is the market. For a longer time, aluminium has an excellent future," Belsky said. UC RUSAL projects China's aluminium production capacity could reach 22.6 million tonnes by 2013, while consumption could reach 27.7 million tonnes by 2015. With the rosy picture in China, the firm also plans to invest $500 million to $3 billion into the nation in next 7 years. The investment plans would include expansion of production at its existing cathode block operations, a joint venture with China Power Investment Corp and other aluminium and alumina projects, Belsky said. UC RUSAL and China Power signed a memorandum of understanding in February to jointly build an alumina refinery in Guinea and an aluminium smelter in the north-western Chinese province of Qinghai. The two firms have yet to sign a formal agreement for the joint investment. Belsky said the alumina refinery could have a designed capacity of 2.8 million tonnes a year and the smelter could be a half million tonnes, which would be powered by low-cost hydro-electricity. (Reuters)
China Aostar cuts output due to low aluminium prices
Sichuan Aostar Aluminum will start closing a third of the capacity at a 125,000-tonne-a-year smelter this week due to low prices and weak demand in China, the world's top aluminium producing and consuming country. "We are starting to close down more than 50 pots in two days," a trade manager at Aostar told Reuters, referring to part of the aluminium production line that accounts for about 50,000 tonnes of primary metal production a year. "Domestic prices are too low and our costs are high. We are making a loss of more than 2,000 yuan per tonne on production." Reduced hydro-electricity in the winter also forced the firm to close part of its capacity, he said. He said the shutdown could expand to half of the smelter if the market situation did not improve in coming weeks. Aostar operates two 125,000-tonne-a-year smelters in Sichuan. The other smelter would maintain normal production, he said. The manager said the firm expected to restart the closed capacity no earlier than April 2009. (Reuters)
There is a lot of news on aluminium today - some positive-sounding such as the China Aostar cut back - and some negative, such as Rusal's plans to increase production dramatically over the next few years. This is a market that will never be short of raw materials and only in the event of chronic power shortages (or extremely high power prices) can we see supply responding sufficiently to tighten up this market.
Albidon Gains Most in Four Years on Nickel Hedge Book
Albidon Ltd., an Australian metals explorer, rose the most in almost four years in London trading after reporting a gain on the closure of its nickel hedge book and shipping the first nickel-concentrate from its Munali mine. West Perth, Australia-based Albidon closed in London up 11.5 pence, or 19.3 percent, at 71 pence. That's the biggest jump since Oct. 11, 2004, valuing the company at 117 million pounds ($217 million). Albidon gained $50 million closing a hedge book of 11,294 metric tons of nickel and will use the funds to pay off debt, it said in a statement distributed by the Regulatory News Service today. It also delivered the first concentrate, a raw form of nickel that is processed into the metal, from Munali in Zambia. Nickel fell 46 percent in the past year on surging supply. Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange rose last week to a nine-year high. (Bloomberg)
Ghana H1 gold revenues surge 40 pct, output up 3 pct
Ghana's gold output rose 3 percent to 1.27 million ounces in the first six months of 2008, but higher prices pushed revenues up 40 percent to $1.1 billion, the Chamber of Mines data showed on Monday. Ghana is Africa's second biggest gold producer after South Africa. It produced nearly 2.5 million ounces of the precious metal in 2007. Average costs, driven by higher spending on electricity, rose sharply to $595/oz in the first quarter of 2008 and $602/oz in the second quarter, from an average $489/oz in 2007, the half-year report from the Chamber of Mines said. The aggregated cash margin for Ghana's mines was up in the first half of 2008, to $298/oz in the first quarter and $294/oz in the second quarter of the year, compared with $199/oz for full year 2007. Ghana's biggest gold producer is the local unit of South African-listed Gold Fields. Its Tarkwa and Damang mines were responsible for 37 percent of Ghana's output in the first half of 2008. AngloGold Ashanti was the second biggest producer with 20 percent of the country's output from its Obuasi and Iduapriem operations, followed by Newmont. (Reuters)
Price spike chokes Indian festival gold demand
Indian gold demand has almost vanished ahead of the peak festival season after a sharp spike in international prices late last week, prompting dealers and retailers to offer discounts, officials said on Monday. "Right now, buying is almost zero," said a bullion dealer based in the western city of Ahmedabad, who asked not to be named. "Maybe new buying will emerge once prices stabilise. Indian consumers shun volatility." Many investors were now booking profits after buying large quantities of gold in early August, when prices were quoting at below $800 an ounce, he said. Gold imports in August jumped 45 percent to about 100 tonnes from a year ago, the Bombay Bullion Association said earlier this month as lower prices then spurred interest. Strong buying was expected to sustain at least until October because of a series of Hindu festivals, when Indians consider it auspicious to buy gold. But the surge in prices has prompted retailers to offer discounts of 200 to 300 rupees ($6.6) per 10 grams. Local gold prices were ruling at about 11,700 rupees per 10 grams. "There will be a slackening of demand," said Nayan Pansare, a financial consultant to India's gems and jewellery industry. The festival demand will be slow. I expect fresh buying only after about a month and a half." Ashok Mittal, vice president and country head of Karvy Comtrade, said some investment buying could emerge on expectations prices may rise higher. "Investors would look to buy whenever there are price dips," he said. (Reuters) We can confirm that Indian demand has slowed, partly because of the rise in price, partly because of an inauspicious time to buy gold, but also due to the fact that so much was bought. Indian demand can now pause and wait for the gold price to come back to where buyers consider it good value. We expect solid buying below $850/oz to help support gold on any pull-back.
OZ Minerals Can Fund Mines amid Credit Market Turmoil
OZ Minerals Ltd., the world's second-largest zinc mining company, said it can finance its development projects without having to sell new shares or tap debt markets that have seized up because of the global credit crisis. ``We have a strong balance sheet, no net borrowings and the ability to generate healthy cash flows,'' the Melbourne-based company's Chairman Barry Cusack and Chief Executive Officer Andrew Michelmore said today in a letter to shareholders. "At a time when the world's financial system is in so much turmoil, this is an enviable position to be in.'' Turbulence in credit markets locked corporates out of capital markets this month after financial companies booked more than $513 billion in write-downs and credit-market losses since last year. OZ Minerals is fourth-ranked of nine stocks on JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s list of Australian mining "safe havens.'' "Generally for the sector, balance sheets are very good and there is a lot of cash being generated even with the pullback in commodity prices,'' Ric Ronge, who helps manage A$1.6 billion ($1.3 billion) at Pengana Capital in Melbourne, said today. "In this market if you have got a funding shortfall you are definitely behind the eight-ball.'' OZ jumped 5.9 percent to A$1.695 on the Australian stock exchange at 12:50 p.m. Sydney time. The company, armed with A$1.3 billion in cash, was formed in July through Oxiana Ltd.'s takeover of Zinifex Ltd. The stock has slumped 36 percent since July 1.
"Whilst the current global economic uncertainties have prompted some investors, including hedge funds, to exit their commodity and basic materials share investments, we have recently seen a number of major, long-term investing institutions take up positions in OZ Minerals,'' Cusack and Michelmore said in the statement. "The outlook for demand for all the commodities we produce remains strong.'' OZ Minerals is building the A$1.1 billion Prominent Hill copper and gold mine in South Australia state and also seeking to develop mines in Queensland state, Indonesia and Canada as well as fund expansion at its Sepon operation in Laos. Small mining companies seeking to build large mineral projects may need to find partners to provide funding, John Veldhuizen, a resources analyst at BBY Ltd., said last week. (Bloomberg)
ETF Securities Says 88 AIG-Backed Products Resume London Trade
ETF Securities Ltd., the Jersey- based manager of $772 billion, said 88 of its commodity products backed by American International Group Inc. have resumed trading electronically on the London Stock Exchange after a Sept. 16 suspension. Transactions in 113 of AIG's exchange-traded commodities worth about $2 billion were halted last week after the biggest U.S. insurer's credit ratings were cut, threatening a collapse. Another 25 products are still suspended, the company said today in a statement distributed by the Regulatory News Service. "AIG continues to honor all of its obligations under our agreements with them,'' the company said. The AIG-backed securities do not include ETFS Physical Gold and other products issued by Metal Securities Ltd., Gold Bullion Securities Ltd. and Oil Securities Ltd. ETF Securities products are traded on the London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Boerse AG, Borsa Italiana SpA and NYSE Euronext. AIG avoided bankruptcy after the U.S. Federal Reserve agreed to lend it as much as $85 billion in return for a majority stake. (Bloomberg)
Vandalism case at Indonesia PT Antam's Pongkor gold mine resolved
Indonesian miner PT Antam has resolved a vandalism incident involving illegal miners at its gold operations in Pongkor, West Java, last Friday, the company said Monday. Mining and gold processing activities were unaffected by the incident, it added. Antam, with the help of Indonesian law enforcement officials, interrogated 44 people at the site on Friday about illegal mining activities that have escalated prior to the Eid al-fitr festival. This sparked protests from 700 other allegedly illegal miners, who smashed windows and tried to set fire to buildings, demanding the release of those held for interrogation. However, the incident was eventually resolved with their release with a commitment to discontinue illegal mining. The number of illegal miners at the site is currently estimated at several hundreds of people, compared with several thousands 10 years ago. (Reuters)
Tanzania-Zambia Railway Not Operating, Copper Exports Hit
Tanzania-Zambia Railway, or Tazara, has been out of operation since the beginning of September and Zambia's leading miner said shipments of copper are still being disrupted. Speaking by telephone from Dar Es Salaam, in Tanzania, a Tazara official said the company hasn't been operating due to a management spat. "The company has even failed to pay workers salaries, we have not been generating any revenues since the month started," the official said. The management dispute has since hit copper exports from Zambia and Konkola Copper Mines; the country's leading copper producer said last week up to 5,000 metric tons of its copper was stuck at the Tazara station in Kapiri Mposhi. Sam Equamo, KCM spokesman, told Dow Jones Newswires Monday the company is still trying to find ways of moving the stuck copper for export.
Tazara is the main export route for copper from landlocked Zambia and Congo's Katanga province. The railway line is also the main export route for coffee, cotton as well as minerals like gold from countries Burundi, Rwanda and eastern Congo. In August, Tazara's board of directors sent all senior managers on forced leave, accusing them of mismanagement. The board then appointed one of its members as a temporary managing director, but this was rejected by the Zambian government. Tanzania local media reported Monday that Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete wants the company privatized in order to revive its operations. Tazara is jointly owned by Tanzania and Zambian governments. (Reuters)
Joy Global CEO says mining industry still strong
The head of Joy Global Inc said on Monday that global mining fundamentals remain "extremely strong" despite the recent decline in the price of many key commodities. In an interview at MINExpo, the industry's quadrennial trade show, Michael Sutherlin, the president and chief executive of the mining equipment company said recent volatility in the price of everything from copper to coal "disguises underlying fundamentals." "We have a lot of evidence forming up right now that indicates we're setting a new higher pricing floor for commodities," he said. "We see long-term, multiple-year contracts that are being signed between mining companies and end users, indicating that the end users are willing to lock into today's prices for a number of years going forward." (Reuters)
15:06 MAGpie: Убивец!! Страшный убивец, этот горячий эстонский парень, Сашкас!!
15:06 ViDan: AlexGrig 15:04 Привет!
...что ето было? )))
15:07 harlowbutler: цыганочка с выходом
15:09 mik: Привет Алекс---а теперь перевод давай(((---
15:13 news_robot: Господа, в разделе Валютный рынок появился новый комментарий
15:14 krokodil52: MAGpie 15:06, ViDan 15:06, harlowbutler 15:07, mik 15:09!1, доброго вкчкра и удачи всем !!, приветствую !!
AlexGrig 15:04!, Саша Григ, это ты решил, месячную норму выполнить!!:))))), за сегодня!!??
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